Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Business Confidence

German business confidence has fallen to its lowest level for at least 18 years after a precipitous decline in industrial orders late last year, even as emergency government action to save Europe’s largest economy took effect.

The Munich-based Ifo institute said on Tuesday its closely watched business -climate index slipped from 83.0 in January to 82.6 in February. That dashed hopes raised by a small rise last month and took the index to its lowest since records began in January 1991.
Although Germany did not have a housing bubble or problems formed by over-indebted consumers as in the US and UK, it has become one of the worst-affected large industrial nations as a result of its heavy reliance on global demand for its products.
Economists fear that Germany is particularly exposed to the turmoil that has affected eastern Europe as the region – including Russia – is more important as an export destination than the US. Jörg Krämer, chief economist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt, said the Lehman Brothers investment bank failure last year showed the industrial sector would also be vulnerable to an intensification of the financial crisis affecting eastern Europe. “The main trigger now is uncertainty,” he said.

Across the 16-country eurozone, industrial orders fell sharply by 5.2 per cent in December compared with November, Eurostat, the European Union’s statistical office, said on Tuesday. Compared with the same month a year before, they were 22.3 per cent lower. Germany reported an above-average 9 per cent fall in December but Ireland fared even worse, reporting a 12.2 per cent fall.
Ifo reported German businesses’ assessment of conditions had deteriorated sharply in February. By contrast, the part of the survey gauging confidence about the next six months rose for the second consecutive month to its highest since October last year. Ifo cited a rebound in optimism by car dealers thanks to subsidies Berlin is to offer Germans who trade-in old vehicles.
Thomas Köbel, an economist at SEB bank in Frankfurt, said the apparently improved domestic conditions gave little cheer given gloomy global prospects: “German companies don’t have much to be confident about.”

Hans-Werner Sinn, Ifo’s president, said: “On the whole, the survey results do not signal a cyclical turning point.”


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